Carbon bombs will blow us thru 1.5OC, unless defused

Posted May 22, 2022

Research just published in the journal Energy Policy and “revealed” by The Guardian make it clear that despite government’s pledges to take action to preserve a livable world, the oil and gas companies are proceeding with business as usual. Unless governments (including ours, because the US is the worst culprit) take quick action to defuse these bombs, all hope (for keeping global temperature from exceeding 1.5OC above preindustrial levels) will be lost.

Some of the gory details:

·       The fossil fuel industry’s short-term expansion plans involve the start of oil and gas projects that will produce greenhouse gases equivalent to a decade of CO2 emissions from China, the world’s biggest polluter.

·       These plans include 195 carbon bombs, gigantic oil and gas projects that would each result in at least a billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over their lifetimes, in total equivalent to about 18 years of current global COemissions. About 60% of these have already started pumping.

·       The dozen biggest oil companies are on track to spend $103m a day for the rest of the decade exploiting new fields of oil and gas that cannot be burned if global heating is to be limited to well under 2C.

·       The Middle East and Russia often attract the most attention in relation to future oil and gas production but the US, Canada and Australia are among the countries with the biggest expansion plans and the highest number of carbon bombs. The US, Canada and Australia also give some of the world’s biggest subsidies for fossil fuels per capita. The US is the leading source of potential emissions. Its 22 carbon bombs include conventional drilling and fracking and span the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the foothills of the Front Range in Colorado to the Permian basin. Together they have the potential to emit 140bn tonnes of CO2, almost four times more than the entire world emits each year.

Defusing carbon bombs must become an important dimension of climate change mitigation policy. The world is in a race against time,” said UN Secretary-General Guterres. “It is time to end fossil fuel subsidies and stop the expansion of oil and gas exploration.” Reflecting on the war in Ukraine, he said: “Countries could become so consumed by the immediate fossil fuel supply gap that they neglect or knee-cap policies to cut fossil fuel use. This is madness. Addiction to fossil fuels is mutually assured destruction.”

We must avoid the activation of new carbon bombs and put existing ones into the “harvest mode” at any cost.

References:

Carrington, Damian and Matthew Taylor. 2022. Revealed: the ‘carbon bombs’ set to trigger catastrophic climate breakdown. The Guardian. May 11. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas

Kühne, Kjell et al, 2022 “Carbon Bombs” – Mapping key fossil fuel projects. Energy Policy May 12. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522001756?via%3Dihub#!

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